Tuesday, 5 February 2019

A Glimpse Into the Future

His prognosis for the coming months in South Africa is that the election result shouldn't have too many surprises, but that the months between now and May could be stormy.
     That was the message of Peter Bruce, well-known newspaper columnist and editor.
     Peter spoke to a roomful of 34 New Dawn Rotarians and friends and family for one of the most interesting meetings the club has had.
Peter Bruce addresses the meeting
     Peter said his father was a Rotarian and a founder member of the Umtata club, which is still going strong.
     The election result, he predicted after talking to pollsters and pundits, would be in the region 55% - 60% to the ANC, with the DA stable or perhaps a little down on the previous election, the EFF more or less stable or slightly higher and little change amongst smaller parties. It means there will be little change over the 2014 election.
     "This means only a slight shift, but it's going to be a rough next few weeks."
Peter Bruce explaining a point while President Linda Vink and Joan Donet look on
     The big danger is that the ANC could dip below 50% in Gauteng and take on the EFF as a coalition partner, giving them access to power and the tender process.
     He doesn't foresee that the ANC could dip below 50% of the popular vote anywhere else, not even in Northwest Province where the ANC has been in turmoil.
     He said there are fissures showing in the DA and that the party is spending so much time arguing about policy that they'll end upon offering much the same as they did in 2014. "It's not good enough."
Carl Chemaly brought a veritable boardroom of friends and contacts to the meeting. From left are Richard Gush, CEO of Merrill Lynch and Dale Sargent with Carl and Graham Donet
     He also said the Zuma faction in the ANC is underestimating President Cyril Ramaphosa's fightback against their fightback after the ousting of Jacob Zuma as president.
     "It'll only take one or two arrests to change things," he said in reference to the appointment of Advocate Shamila Batohi as the new NPA head.
Adriaen Sligcher, Mike MacDonald, David Marshall and Wayne Duvenhage sharing breakfast
     "South Africa isn't broken. We all went on holiday in December as usual. The country functions most of the time. We'll have robust but free and fair elections. My advice is to go into the elections as enthusiastic citizens."
     "Enjoy the next few months, it'll be exciting."
Frank Odenthal, Paul Kasango, Peta Thomas, Frayne Mathijs and Jankees Sligcher at the meeting
Russ Smith and Debbie and Paula Nagy were amongst the guests
Nick Bell, a retired Anglican priest, was a welcome visitor again, with Judy Symons
     Carl Chemaly invited a group of friends and contacts to the meeting and we could just see some of them again soon, as one of them was Wayne Duvenhage from the organisation Outa, who will be the speaker at the meeting on 27 February.
     This promises to be another highlight of the Rotary year, so try to be there.
Nick Barnes of Jozi Housing, Joan Donet, Peter Bruce and Tina Stucke listen as President Linda Vink addresses the club
     Amongst the guests were Peter Delmar, a journalist and amongst other things organiser of the Parkview Literary Festival, which will be held on Heritage Day in September again. It sounds like an initiative with which New Dawn would want to be involved.
     Also there were Peter Day and Nick Barnes from Jozi Housing, Peter Raubenheimer from the Veterinary Wholesaler Lakato, Dale Sargent of ArtVault, Richard Gush, CEO of Merrill Lynch and Ross Randall, CEO and co-founder of Ivy Private Equity.
     Most of them live in the Parkview/Parktown North area so could be persuaded to join New Dawn.
Peter Bruce speaking to Richard Gush, Ross Randall and Wayne Duvenhage of Outa
     Adriaen Sligcher and Dave Marshall were also visitors, but both are becoming members. We've received a letter of good standing from Rotary Brits-Hartbeespoort, so to all intents and purposes David is already a member. He will be formally invited into the club once we receive his new badge.
     Also amongst the guests were Tina Stucke (Linda's sister), Debbie and Paula Nagy (Julian's wife and daughter), Nick Bell and Russ and Andrew Smith.
Damien Barfolo, Liam Flint and Phat Kevin Nguyen
     Although the meeting this week will take the form of a mini-AGM to ratify changes to the club constitution and by-laws for our PBO application, there will also be what promises to be an interesting talk by three young Australians.
     They are Damien Barfolo, Liam Flint and Phat Kevin Nguyen, three paramedic students from Western Sydney University in Australia, in Johannesburg to pick up experience of paramedic work for the usual obvious reasons.
     Damian is a Rotaractor at the WSU.
     And finally ... don't forget the Bridge Drive on Thursday, 14th March. There is still a shortage of decent prizes and of course an initiative like this stands or falls by the number of players, so please canvass amongst people you know who play, even if it is just social bridge. One half of the Bridge Drive is for social players, while those who prefer competitive bridge will be catered for.
     A Thought for the Week: The only man who is really free is the one who can turn down a dinner invitation without giving an excuse. - Jules Renard (1864 - 1910)

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